A mathematical model for the spread of streptococcus pneumoniae with transmission due to sequence type

This paper discusses a simple mathematical model to describe the spread of Streptococcus pneumoniae. We suppose that the transmission of the bacterium is determined by multi-locus sequence type. The model includes vaccination and is designed to examine what happens in a vaccinated population if MLSTs can exist as both vaccine and non vaccine serotypes with capsular switching possible from the former to the latter. We start off with a discussion of Streptococcus pneumoniae and a review of previous work. We propose a simple mathematical model with two sequence types and then perform an equilibrium and (global) stability analysis on the model. We show that in general there are only three equilibria, the carriage-free equilibrium and two carriage equilibria. If the effective reproduction number Re is less than or equal to one, then the carriage will die out. If Re > 1, then the carriage will tend to the carriage equilibrium corresponding to the multi-locus sequence type with the largest transmission parameter. In the case where both multi-locus sequence types have the same transmission parameter then there is a line of carriage equilibria. Provided that carriage is initially present then as time progresses the carriage will approach a point on this line. The results generalize to many competing sequence types. Simulations with realistic parameter values confirm the analytical results.

How to find natural reservoir hosts from endemic prevalence in a multi-host population : a case study of influenza in waterfowl

The transmission dynamics of infectious diseases critically depend on reservoir hosts, which can sustain the pathogen (or maintain the transmission) in the population even in the absence of other hosts. Although a theoretical foundation of the transmission dynamics in a multi-host population has been established, no quantitative methods exist for the identification of natural reservoir hosts. For a host to maintain the transmission alone, the host-specific reproduction number (U), interpreted as the average number of secondary transmissions caused by a single primary case in the host(s) of interest in the absence of all other hosts, must be greater than unity. If the host-excluded reproduction number (Q), representing the average number of secondary transmissions per single primary case in other hosts in the absence of the host(s) of interest, is below unity, transmission cannot be maintained in the multi-host population in the absence of the focal host(s).

The present study proposes a simple method for the identification of reservoir host(s) from observed endemic prevalence data across a range of host species. As an example, we analyze an aggregated surveillance dataset of influenza A virus in wild birds among which dabbling ducks exhibit higher prevalence compared to other bird species. Since the heterogeneous contact patterns between different host species are not directly observable, we test four different contact structures to account for the uncertainty. Meeting the requirements of U > 1 and Q < 1 for all four different contact structures, mallards and other dabbling ducks most likely constitute the reservoir community which plays a predominant role in maintaining the transmission of influenza A virus in the water bird population. We further discuss epidemiological issues which are concerned with the interpretation of influenza prevalence data, identifying key features to be fully clarified in the future.

A mathematical model for the spread of Strepotococcus pneumoniae with transmission dependent on serotype

We examine a mathematical model for the transmission of Streptococcus Pneumoniae amongst young children when the carriage transmission coefficient depends on the serotype. Carriage means pneumococcal colonization. There are two sequence types (STs) spreading in a population each of which can be expressed as one of two serotypes. We derive the differential equation model for the carriage spread and perform an equilibrium and global stability analysis on it. A key parameter is the effective reproduction number R e. For R e ≤ 1,  there is only the carriage-free equilibrium (CFE) and the carriage will die out whatever be the starting values. For R e > 1, unless the effective reproduction numbers of the two STs are equal, in addition to the CFE there are two carriage equilibria, one for each ST. If the ST with the largest effective reproduction number is initially present, then in the long-term the carriage will tend to the corresponding equilibrium.

Risk assessment of sexual offenders for extended supervision orders in New Zealand : basic principles and current practice

A growing number of jurisdictions in North America, the United Kingdom, and Australasia have enacted legislation allowing for special sentencing, civil commitment, and community supervision options for high risk sexual offenders. In New Zealand, one example of this concern for public protection is the Parole (Extended Supervision) Amendment Act 2004, which provides for additional supervision of sexual offenders with child victims for up to 10 years after their release from prison. Recent experience with expert evidence and judicial decision making in such cases suggests that those involved in the process might benefit from a more thorough understanding of the current state of sexual offender risk assessment that can be provided by mental health professionals.

Within and against performativity : discursive engagement in adult literacy and basic education

The field of adult literacy and basic education (ALBE) has undergone dramatic changes in recent years with the advent of labour market programs, accreditation, competency-based assessment and competitive tendering for program funds. Teachers' working conditions have deteriorated and their professional autonomy has been eroded. ALBE has been increasingly instrumentalised to fulfil the requirements of a marketised economy and conform to its norms. The beliefs and value systems which traditionally underpinned the work of ALBE teachers have been reframed according to the principle of 'performativity' and the demands of the 'performative State' (Lyotard, 1984: 46, Yeatman 1994: 110). The destabilisation of teachers' working lives can be understood as a manifestation of the 'postmodern condition' (Lyotard 1984; Harvey 1989): the collapse of the certainties and purposes of the past; the proliferation of technologies; the impermanence and intensification of work; the commodification of knowledge and curricula; and the dissolving of boundaries between disciplines and fields of knowledge. The critiques of the modernist grand narratives which underpin progressivist and critical approaches to adult literacy pedagogy have further undermined the traditional points of reference of ALBE teachers. In this thesis I examine how teachers are teaching, surviving, resisting, and 'living the contradictions' (Seddon 1994) in the context of struggles to comply with and resist the requirements of performativity. Following Foucault and a number of feminist poststructuralist authors, I have applied the notions of 'discursive engagement' and 'the politics of discourse' (Yeatman 1990a) as a way of theorising the interplay between imposed change and teachers' practice. I explore the discursive practices which take place at the interface between the 'new' policy discourses and older, naturalised discourses; how teachers are engaged by and are engaging with discourses of performativity; how teachers are discursively constructing adult literacy pedagogy; what new, hybrid discourses of 'good practice' are emerging; and the micropractices of resistance which teachers are enacting in their speech and in their practice. My purpose was to develop knowledge which would support the reflexivity of teachers; to enrich the theoretical languages that teachers could draw upon in trying to make sense of their situation; and to use those languages in speaking about the dilemmas of practice. I used participatory action research as a means of producing knowledge about teachers' practices, structured around their agency, and reflecting their standpoint (Harding 1993). I describe two separate action research projects in which teachers of ALBE participated. I reflect on both projects in the light of poststructuralist theory and consider them as instances of what Lather calls 'within/against research' (Lather 1989: 27). I analyse written and spoken texts produced in both projects which reflect teachers' responses to competency-based assessment and other features of the changing context. I use a method of discourse mapping to describe the discursive field and the teachers' discursive practices. Three main configurations of discourse are delineated: 'progressivism', 'professional teacher' and 'performativity'. The teachers mainly position themselves within a hybridising 'progressivist /professional teacher' discourse, as a discourse of resistance to 'performative' discourse. In adapting their pedagogies, the teachers are in some degree taking the language and world view of performativity into their own vocabularies and practices. The discursive picture I have mapped is complex and contradictory. On one hand, the 'progressivist /professional teacher' discourse appears to endure and to take strength from the articulation into it of elements of performative discourse, creating new possibilities for discursive transformation. On the other hand, there are signs that performative discourse is colonising and subsuming progressivist /professional teacher discourse. At times, both of these tendencies are apparent in the one text. Six micropractices of resistance are identified within the texts: 'rational critique', 'objectification', 'subversion', 'refusal', 'humour' and 'the affirmation of desire'. These reflect the teachers' agency in making discursive choices on the micro level of their every day practices. Through those micropractices, the teachers are engaging with and resisting the micropractices and meanings of performativity. I apply the same multi-layered method of analysis to an examination of discursive engagement in pedagogy by analysing a transcript of the teachers' discussion of critical incidents in their classrooms. Their classroom pedagogies are revealed as complex, situated and eclectic. They are combining and integrating their 'embodied' and their 'institutional' powers, both 'seducing' (McWilliam 1995) and 'regulating' (Gore 1993) as they teach. A strong ethical project is apparent in the teachers' sense of social responsibility, in their determination to adhere to valued traditions of previous times, and in their critical self-awareness of the ways in which they use their institutional and embodied powers in the classroom. Finally, l look back on the findings, and reflect on the possibilities of discursive engagement and the politics of discourse as a framework for more strategic practice in the current context. This research provides grounds for hope that, by becoming more self-conscious about how we engage discursively, we might become more strategic in our everyday professional practice. Not withstanding the constraints (evident in this study) which limit the strategic potential of the politics of discourse, there is space for teachers to become more reflexive in their professional, pedagogical and political praxis. Development of more deliberate, self-reflexive praxis might lead to a 'postmodern democratic polities' (Yeatman 1994: 112) which would challenge the performative state and the system of globalised capital which it serves. Short abstract Adult literacy and basic education (ALBE) teachers have experienced a period of dramatic policy change in recent years; in particular, the introduction of competency-based assessment and competitive tendering for program funds. 'Discourse politics' provides a way of theorising the interplay between policy-mediated institutional change and teachers' practice. The focus of this study is 'discursive engagement'; how teachers are engaged by and are engaging with discourses of performativity. Through two action research projects, texts were generated of teachers talking and writing about how they were responding to the challenges, and developing their pedagogies in the new policy environment. These texts have been analysed and several patterns of discursive engagement delineated, named and illustrated. The strategic potential of 'discourse polities' is explored in the light of the findings.

Effects of snow cover on the timing and success of reproduction in high-Arctic pink-footed geese Anser brachyrhynchus

During four breeding seasons, 2003–2006, we studied the relationship between snow cover and nesting performance in pink-footed geese (Anser brachyrhynchus) in a key breeding site on Svalbard. Snow cover in late May, i.e., at the time of egg laying of geese, was derived from MODIS satellite images. Snow cover had a profound cascading effect on reproductive output via the number of nesting pairs and timing of nesting, which affected nest success, while there was only a tendency for a negative effect on clutch size. Hence, we estimated a five-fold difference in the number of young produced (to post-hatching) between years with little snow and years with high snow cover. The results from the study area correlated with whole-population productivity estimates recorded in autumn. Thus, snow cover derived from MODIS satellite images appears to provide a useful indicator of the breeding conditions in the Arctic.

Screening applicants for assisted reproduction : complexities and issues

Different jurisdictions take different approaches to whether screening people before permitting access to assisted reproductive treatment (ART) is permissible, the criteria to be used, and whether such screening is provided for by law, guidelines or left to clinician discretion. This chapter examines the reasons for screening applicants for ART, the primary criteria used to screen applicants, and approaches to screening taken in the United States, the United Kingdom, and a number of states in Australia (as jurisdictions illustrative of where law, guidelines, or clinician discretion are practised). It examines whether screening is a useful tool that protects children.

Effects of stress on reproduction in non-rodent mammals : the role of glucocorticoids and sex differences

The means by which stress influences reproduction is not clearly understood, but may involve a number of endocrine, paracrine and neural systems. Stress impacts on the reproductive axis at the hypothalamus (to affect GnRH secretion) and the pituitary gland (to affect gonadotrophin secretion), with direct effects on the gonads being of less importance. Different stressors have different effects and there are differences in response to short- and long-term stress. Many short-term stresses fail to affect reproduction and there are reports of stimulatory effects of some 'stressors'. There are species differences in the way that specific stressors affect reproduction. Sex differences in the effects of a particular stressor have been delineated and these may relate to effects of stress at different levels of the hypothalamo-pituitary axis. The significance of stress-induced secretion of cortisol varies with species. In some instances, there appears to be little impact of short-term increases in cortisol concentrations and protracted increases in plasma concentration seem to be required before any deleterious effect on reproduction is apparent. Issues of sex, sex steroid status, type of stressor and duration of stress need to be considered to improve understanding of this issue.

Stress and reproduction: central mechanisms and sex differences in non-rodent species

Despite extensive research, the mechanisms by which stress affects reproduction are unknown. Activation of stress systems could potentially influence reproduction at any level of the hypothalamo-pituitary gonadal axis. Nonetheless, the predominant impact is on the secretion of gonadotrophin releasing hormone (GnRH) from the brain and the secretion of the gonadotrophins, luteinizing hormone (LH) and follicle stimulating hormone (FSH), from the gonadotrophs of the anterior pituitary gland. When stress is prolonged, it is likely that secretion of the gonadotrophins will be suppressed but the effects of acute stress or repeated acute stress are not clear. Different stressors activate different pathways for varying durations, and the actions of stress vary with sex and are influenced by the predominance of particular sex steroids in the circulation. The mechanisms by which stress influences reproduction are likely to involve complex interactions between a number of central and peripheral pathways and may be different in males and females. To understand these mechanisms, it is important to determine the stress pathways that are activated by particular stressors and to establish how these pathways affect the secretion and actions of GnRH. Furthermore, there is a need to know how stress influences the feedback actions of gonadal steroids and inhibin.